China's Territorial Amibtions 2 - Mongolia

The nomads lost to the farmers - while the farmers feared the light cavalry horde a few hundred years ago, the nomads fear the economic power of the Chinese today.

Of all of China's neighbors, no other country has had a more tormented relationship with China than Mongolia. From the time of the Huns, to Genghis Khan, to the Qing Dynasty and to modern day, the nomads of the Mongol Steppe have feuded with the agrarian Chinese civilization south to them.

Less than 100 years ago, during China's weakest moments, with the aid of the Soviets, the Mongols threw off China's yoke. Ever since that time, the Mongols have resented the Chinese for past domination and the threat of a Chinese invasion. This fear is due partly to irrational xenophobia, but the Mongolians have very good reasons to fear China, and it's not beyond the realm of reality that China's 2.3 million strong army sweeps across the Gobi and annex this country of 3 million people.

China has very strong economic reasons to invade, but first let's look at the legality of such a move. The People's Republic of China renounced claims to Mongolia in 1949 due the alliance at the time with USSR - the Mainland Communist Chinese Government needed Russian aid and expertise, and simply was not in a position to engage challenge the Russians over Mongolia after 2 decades of constant war. However, the Republic of China government exiled to Taiwan, still the rightful successor government to inherit the territories of the Qing empire never legally gave up claims to this land. Any future reconciliations between these two governments would inevitably lead to a calibration of the territorial claims. The new unified, strengthened China may decide to repudiate old treaties and bring back old claims. Technically, the Republic of China never gave up 'Outer Mongolia'. Thus any annexations by China would not be deemed illegal, if China at all cares about legality at that point, since laws are always dictated by the strong.

Economics 1: As with Russia in the previous article, the population osmosis factor between the two countries favors a move by China.

Mongolia has a population density of 5.1 persons/sq mi to China's 363 persons/sq mi. Historically, Han Chinese stayed out of the Steppe because the area was not suited for traditional Chinese sedentary agricultural society, and the ferocity of the Mongol Horde. Today, the Horde has long been vanquished and Mongolian lands can be profitable agriculturally with large scale industrial dairy and meat production, and even advanced agricultural technology such as drip irrigation. The new generation of Chinese looking for adventure and seeking relief from the crowded Chinese cities would do well to find their Wild West in Mongolia.

Economics 2: Mongolia sits on vast deposits of resources, especially gold and copper. Foreign corporations such as Ivanhoe Mines Inc. have already moved in to exploit these at very favorable terms - Ivanhoe Mines negotiated a deal where the weak and corrupt Mongolian Government essentially ceded 5% of the country total land area to Ivanhoe Mines to develop in return for a fixed royalty. Ivanhoe has profited enormously from high copper and gold prices. Mongolians are too poor and uneducated to stop foreign exploitation one way or another. There's also speculation of massive oil reserves beneath the Gobi in Mongolia. China is sitting on the sidelines with clenched fists because the Mongolian government is still wary of Chinese involvement in the economy. China needs the resources, and needs them cheap and close to home. Mongolia is ideal for a national takeover, just as a weak corporation rich in hard assets is ripe for a corporate buyout.

See http://www.mimc.mn/en/main-content/mongolian-mineral-resources.html.



Geopolitics 1: Beijing, the capital and heart of China, lies merely 700km from the Mongolian border. There are no major geographic obstacles from the border to Beijing ie steep mountain passes, major rivers, to stop an invading army. Without resistance, an invading army can start out from the border at 6 AM and stand in front of Tiananmen before dinner time. Although the Mongols themselves pose little threat, their alliance with Russians and recently with the Americans has definitely raised alarms in Beijing among the highest circles. China would do well to insulate its capital by adding more buffer territory.

Geopolitics 2: Outer Mongolia signed a treaty with Tibet in 1923 recognizing each other's independence. Tibet fell to China, Mongolia only managed to retain its independence Russian help. That treaty stands to this day as the only legal treaty negotiated by the then independent Tibet with a foreign government recognizing its independence. The Tibetan Government-in-exile cites this as proof which infinitely annoys China. In geopolitical terms, Mongolia is nearly identical to Tibet - both are rich in resources, both in strategic locations, both historically and rightfully should belong to China. China's possession of one but both weakens its reasoning for the Tibet occupation. In addition, the Mongols in China, which number 6 million (twice the population of Mongolia) have fomented secessionist movements aimed at reuniting Inner Mongolia with Outer Mongolia. In Outer Mongolia too, many share this ambition - the founding father, Sukhbaatar, planned armed annexation of Inner Mongolia but was restrained by his Russian master. This is a potential flash point that China must neutralize.

Military and International community: the Mongolian armed forces may do better than the Tibetan army did in 1951 against the PLA, but their struggle would be futile. Their old benefactor Russia has to worry about its own safety and is becoming increasingly falling to par with China in terms of military strength. Russia would think twice before intervening, especially in the future when Russia's unstable political system meets crisis. As for the West and Japan, Mongolia represents an insignificant factor to their interest that in the event of annexation by China, the most tactful response would be vocal opposition coupled with quiet acquiescence.

Odds:

In next 50 years, China peacefully annexes Mongolia - 80%
China forcefully annexes Mongolia - 50%

China's Territorial Ambitions - Russia

Weakness invites Strength; wealth invites greed. Two millenia of power and prosperity has spread far and wide the tales of China's fabulous wealth. At the beginning of the 19th century, China's prosperity was fading, and foreign powers came knocking on china's door to divide the spoils.

200 years later, China rises again, and time has not erased its memories of its past glory, or territory.

Japan, Russia and Great Britain made the most significant territorial gains in China. As of 2010, former territories occupied by Great Britain, Portugal and over European powers have been fully restored to China. There remains, however, ongoing occupation of Chinese lands in the North, West, and East.

Russia accounts for the bulk of this occupation. From the map above, all of Russia's Far East Provinces including Sakhalin were formed out of Outer Manchuria, which Russia took in a series of unequal treaties when China was at its weakest. These are the only unequal treaties to have territorial impact to this day, as all other unequal treaties imposed by Western Powers have generally either expired or been revoked by the Communist Government. Though China has officially renounced claims to these lands, in the hearts of the people, government and military, these lands still belong to China. On Chinese maps, place names in the Russia Far East are still referred to their original Chinese names instead of the Russian names. For example, 'Haishenwei' is used instead of Vladivostok, and Kuye Dao, instead of Sakhalin Island on Chinese maps.



Demographics also come into play. In China's 3 Northeastern Provinces, there are over 110 million people which is projected to reach 130 million by 2020. While the Russian Far East (RFE) (including Yakutia, Irkusk, Kamchatka) in total has a population of 6.7 million as of the 2009, and is projected to fall to 4.5 million by 2015, according to CIA world Factbook. Based on estimates by the UN, China's population density is 362/sq. mi versus 22/sq. mi in Russia. Thus China experiences 17 times the population pressure of Russia, an extreme population imbalance according to theories of Population Osmosis. Due to the remoteness of the RFE to Russian heartland, and relative proximity of China's Northeast (CNE) to Beijing, China's political centre, the contrast is even more stark - CNE has 62 times the population of the RFE, despite having less than 1/4 the area. Currently, there is an estimated 100,000 to 300,000 thousand Chinese in the RFE working as laborers or traders, according to the Russian Census.

A second contrast is resource allocation. China has 20% of the world's population, but 1% of the world's oil, 5% of the world's arable land. Russia has 2.5% the world's population, 5.5% of the world's oil, not to mention the largest reserve of natural gas in the world, 8% of the world's arable land, of which only half are cultivated. In addition, Russia is endowed numerous fresh water sources. Lake Baikal alone holds 20% of the world's fresh water. Meanwhile, China has repeated suffered droughts, and its rivers are heavily polluted or drying up. For now China is content to pay Russia a premium for these resources which China views as rightfully its own, but this may not be the case in the future.

Though the world has focus its attention of the animosity between China and the US, a US-China conflict is much less likely than one between Russia and China. First of all, to quote the Art of War, "apply diplomacy to the rivals far away, and force to those nearby". America, and other Western powers are very removed from China; so despite their differences, it would be difficult for either party to initiate violence due the distance and logistics. Military cadres in both countries are focused on deterrence factors, not advanced deployments. Secondly, despite the periodic rhetoric, China and US have in essence forged a very profitable partnership that either party would be foolish to reverse. The third reason is historical: despite China's current misgivings about the US, including the Taiwan Question, the Dalai Lama, etc, the US has never in history, actually caused serious harm to China's interests. In fact, China has the US to thank for much of its recent economic prosperity. Russia on the other hand has been a persistent threat and harm for the last 200 years.

In terms of capability, the combination of Chinese numerical advantage and recent military technology advancements should place the PLA on par if not at an advantage to Russia. China unveiled the JL-10 fighter, which is has drawn comparisons to American F-16 and the French Mirage 2000. The only deterrent would be Russia's nuclear arsenal. However, China's own nuclear development has enabled it to at least disable Russia's Second Strike Capability if not its First Strike as well.

Russian political instability in the future may offer China an opportunity to impose its will, just as Czarist Russia did in the 19th century.

To conclude this section, let's tally up the factors:

1. China has a legitimate claim to Russian lands
2. China needs Russia land as a population valve
3. China desperately need Russia's resources
4. Russian political instability makes it likely prey
5. China's strengthening position in economic, political, and military terms

Deterrent:

1.Russia's nuclear arsenal
2. World political pressure
3. China's need for stability for further economic growth

Odds:

China goes to war with Russia in next 10 years: 5% likeliness
in next 50 years: 50% likliness

China wins in conflict with Russia: 50%

Next edition: China's Territorial Ambitions - Mongolia