China's Territorial Amibtions 2 - Mongolia

The nomads lost to the farmers - while the farmers feared the light cavalry horde a few hundred years ago, the nomads fear the economic power of the Chinese today.

Of all of China's neighbors, no other country has had a more tormented relationship with China than Mongolia. From the time of the Huns, to Genghis Khan, to the Qing Dynasty and to modern day, the nomads of the Mongol Steppe have feuded with the agrarian Chinese civilization south to them.

Less than 100 years ago, during China's weakest moments, with the aid of the Soviets, the Mongols threw off China's yoke. Ever since that time, the Mongols have resented the Chinese for past domination and the threat of a Chinese invasion. This fear is due partly to irrational xenophobia, but the Mongolians have very good reasons to fear China, and it's not beyond the realm of reality that China's 2.3 million strong army sweeps across the Gobi and annex this country of 3 million people.

China has very strong economic reasons to invade, but first let's look at the legality of such a move. The People's Republic of China renounced claims to Mongolia in 1949 due the alliance at the time with USSR - the Mainland Communist Chinese Government needed Russian aid and expertise, and simply was not in a position to engage challenge the Russians over Mongolia after 2 decades of constant war. However, the Republic of China government exiled to Taiwan, still the rightful successor government to inherit the territories of the Qing empire never legally gave up claims to this land. Any future reconciliations between these two governments would inevitably lead to a calibration of the territorial claims. The new unified, strengthened China may decide to repudiate old treaties and bring back old claims. Technically, the Republic of China never gave up 'Outer Mongolia'. Thus any annexations by China would not be deemed illegal, if China at all cares about legality at that point, since laws are always dictated by the strong.

Economics 1: As with Russia in the previous article, the population osmosis factor between the two countries favors a move by China.

Mongolia has a population density of 5.1 persons/sq mi to China's 363 persons/sq mi. Historically, Han Chinese stayed out of the Steppe because the area was not suited for traditional Chinese sedentary agricultural society, and the ferocity of the Mongol Horde. Today, the Horde has long been vanquished and Mongolian lands can be profitable agriculturally with large scale industrial dairy and meat production, and even advanced agricultural technology such as drip irrigation. The new generation of Chinese looking for adventure and seeking relief from the crowded Chinese cities would do well to find their Wild West in Mongolia.

Economics 2: Mongolia sits on vast deposits of resources, especially gold and copper. Foreign corporations such as Ivanhoe Mines Inc. have already moved in to exploit these at very favorable terms - Ivanhoe Mines negotiated a deal where the weak and corrupt Mongolian Government essentially ceded 5% of the country total land area to Ivanhoe Mines to develop in return for a fixed royalty. Ivanhoe has profited enormously from high copper and gold prices. Mongolians are too poor and uneducated to stop foreign exploitation one way or another. There's also speculation of massive oil reserves beneath the Gobi in Mongolia. China is sitting on the sidelines with clenched fists because the Mongolian government is still wary of Chinese involvement in the economy. China needs the resources, and needs them cheap and close to home. Mongolia is ideal for a national takeover, just as a weak corporation rich in hard assets is ripe for a corporate buyout.

See http://www.mimc.mn/en/main-content/mongolian-mineral-resources.html.



Geopolitics 1: Beijing, the capital and heart of China, lies merely 700km from the Mongolian border. There are no major geographic obstacles from the border to Beijing ie steep mountain passes, major rivers, to stop an invading army. Without resistance, an invading army can start out from the border at 6 AM and stand in front of Tiananmen before dinner time. Although the Mongols themselves pose little threat, their alliance with Russians and recently with the Americans has definitely raised alarms in Beijing among the highest circles. China would do well to insulate its capital by adding more buffer territory.

Geopolitics 2: Outer Mongolia signed a treaty with Tibet in 1923 recognizing each other's independence. Tibet fell to China, Mongolia only managed to retain its independence Russian help. That treaty stands to this day as the only legal treaty negotiated by the then independent Tibet with a foreign government recognizing its independence. The Tibetan Government-in-exile cites this as proof which infinitely annoys China. In geopolitical terms, Mongolia is nearly identical to Tibet - both are rich in resources, both in strategic locations, both historically and rightfully should belong to China. China's possession of one but both weakens its reasoning for the Tibet occupation. In addition, the Mongols in China, which number 6 million (twice the population of Mongolia) have fomented secessionist movements aimed at reuniting Inner Mongolia with Outer Mongolia. In Outer Mongolia too, many share this ambition - the founding father, Sukhbaatar, planned armed annexation of Inner Mongolia but was restrained by his Russian master. This is a potential flash point that China must neutralize.

Military and International community: the Mongolian armed forces may do better than the Tibetan army did in 1951 against the PLA, but their struggle would be futile. Their old benefactor Russia has to worry about its own safety and is becoming increasingly falling to par with China in terms of military strength. Russia would think twice before intervening, especially in the future when Russia's unstable political system meets crisis. As for the West and Japan, Mongolia represents an insignificant factor to their interest that in the event of annexation by China, the most tactful response would be vocal opposition coupled with quiet acquiescence.

Odds:

In next 50 years, China peacefully annexes Mongolia - 80%
China forcefully annexes Mongolia - 50%

China's Territorial Ambitions - Russia

Weakness invites Strength; wealth invites greed. Two millenia of power and prosperity has spread far and wide the tales of China's fabulous wealth. At the beginning of the 19th century, China's prosperity was fading, and foreign powers came knocking on china's door to divide the spoils.

200 years later, China rises again, and time has not erased its memories of its past glory, or territory.

Japan, Russia and Great Britain made the most significant territorial gains in China. As of 2010, former territories occupied by Great Britain, Portugal and over European powers have been fully restored to China. There remains, however, ongoing occupation of Chinese lands in the North, West, and East.

Russia accounts for the bulk of this occupation. From the map above, all of Russia's Far East Provinces including Sakhalin were formed out of Outer Manchuria, which Russia took in a series of unequal treaties when China was at its weakest. These are the only unequal treaties to have territorial impact to this day, as all other unequal treaties imposed by Western Powers have generally either expired or been revoked by the Communist Government. Though China has officially renounced claims to these lands, in the hearts of the people, government and military, these lands still belong to China. On Chinese maps, place names in the Russia Far East are still referred to their original Chinese names instead of the Russian names. For example, 'Haishenwei' is used instead of Vladivostok, and Kuye Dao, instead of Sakhalin Island on Chinese maps.



Demographics also come into play. In China's 3 Northeastern Provinces, there are over 110 million people which is projected to reach 130 million by 2020. While the Russian Far East (RFE) (including Yakutia, Irkusk, Kamchatka) in total has a population of 6.7 million as of the 2009, and is projected to fall to 4.5 million by 2015, according to CIA world Factbook. Based on estimates by the UN, China's population density is 362/sq. mi versus 22/sq. mi in Russia. Thus China experiences 17 times the population pressure of Russia, an extreme population imbalance according to theories of Population Osmosis. Due to the remoteness of the RFE to Russian heartland, and relative proximity of China's Northeast (CNE) to Beijing, China's political centre, the contrast is even more stark - CNE has 62 times the population of the RFE, despite having less than 1/4 the area. Currently, there is an estimated 100,000 to 300,000 thousand Chinese in the RFE working as laborers or traders, according to the Russian Census.

A second contrast is resource allocation. China has 20% of the world's population, but 1% of the world's oil, 5% of the world's arable land. Russia has 2.5% the world's population, 5.5% of the world's oil, not to mention the largest reserve of natural gas in the world, 8% of the world's arable land, of which only half are cultivated. In addition, Russia is endowed numerous fresh water sources. Lake Baikal alone holds 20% of the world's fresh water. Meanwhile, China has repeated suffered droughts, and its rivers are heavily polluted or drying up. For now China is content to pay Russia a premium for these resources which China views as rightfully its own, but this may not be the case in the future.

Though the world has focus its attention of the animosity between China and the US, a US-China conflict is much less likely than one between Russia and China. First of all, to quote the Art of War, "apply diplomacy to the rivals far away, and force to those nearby". America, and other Western powers are very removed from China; so despite their differences, it would be difficult for either party to initiate violence due the distance and logistics. Military cadres in both countries are focused on deterrence factors, not advanced deployments. Secondly, despite the periodic rhetoric, China and US have in essence forged a very profitable partnership that either party would be foolish to reverse. The third reason is historical: despite China's current misgivings about the US, including the Taiwan Question, the Dalai Lama, etc, the US has never in history, actually caused serious harm to China's interests. In fact, China has the US to thank for much of its recent economic prosperity. Russia on the other hand has been a persistent threat and harm for the last 200 years.

In terms of capability, the combination of Chinese numerical advantage and recent military technology advancements should place the PLA on par if not at an advantage to Russia. China unveiled the JL-10 fighter, which is has drawn comparisons to American F-16 and the French Mirage 2000. The only deterrent would be Russia's nuclear arsenal. However, China's own nuclear development has enabled it to at least disable Russia's Second Strike Capability if not its First Strike as well.

Russian political instability in the future may offer China an opportunity to impose its will, just as Czarist Russia did in the 19th century.

To conclude this section, let's tally up the factors:

1. China has a legitimate claim to Russian lands
2. China needs Russia land as a population valve
3. China desperately need Russia's resources
4. Russian political instability makes it likely prey
5. China's strengthening position in economic, political, and military terms

Deterrent:

1.Russia's nuclear arsenal
2. World political pressure
3. China's need for stability for further economic growth

Odds:

China goes to war with Russia in next 10 years: 5% likeliness
in next 50 years: 50% likliness

China wins in conflict with Russia: 50%

Next edition: China's Territorial Ambitions - Mongolia

Origin of the Chinese Part 3

In China's history, one finds a repeating pattern of barbarian invasion, followed by Sinicization and subsequent stability and prosperity. The Empire strengthens and the gene pool deepens, but each time at great cost in blood.


We are now in the 12th century, the Song dynasty, bastion of Han Chinese civilization is in decline from corruption, inept rulers, natural disasters and incessant incursions from the Northern Hordes. Two factors should be noted.

First of all, the Song dynasty saw the entrenchment of Confucianism in Chinese politics; this is the beginning of the conservatism that would later render China unable to defend itself against Western Powers. Not only was Confucianism the main school of philosophy, it was made the official dogma of government, and worse, the military. The reformer Wang Anshi whose reforms included implementing a mass military reserve system and investing in military technology to defeat and even colonize China's rivals (Khitans, Tanguts, Vietnamese, Koreans) to permanently remove the threat, was eventually forced out of power by conservatives who favored cloistering China from the outside, and maintaining a status quo with tens of thousands of taels of silver in tribute.

Secondly, the old Turkic nomads of the Mongol Steppe have been defeated, absorbed and exiled westward (where they would bring down 3 empires, Persia, Arab, and Byzantine). The new rulers of the Steppe came from Mongolic (Mongols, Khitans) and Tungustic (Jurchens/Manchus) stock. As opposed to the loose confederation of tribes that comprised the Gokturks, the Khitans, Mongols, and Jurchens all adopted Chinese style centralized government. This in combination with their ferocious and mobile cavalry made large scale invasion and occupation possible because of improved logistics. The Chinese military doctrine had stagnated since the days of the Tang, and was only prepared for sporadic raids of the Turkic horsemen, not the well-supplied mass cavalry invasion.

China retreated in the face of these hordes, finally succumbing to the Mongols completely after the Batter of Zhuya, in today's Hainan. The process of barbarian conquest took 2oo years, from the Jingkang incident to establishment of Yuan rule over all of China. The riverine environment of South China, and the use of gunpowder by the Chinese helped preserve the Song. During these two hundred years, the Northern hordes once again found themselves slowly losing their culture to the superior Chinese civilization. It was during this period that a new phenomenon occurred - the barbarian dynasties started employing Han Chinese in government at the highest levels. The Khitans were the first to do so; they would be emulated by all subsequent barbarian dynasties down to the Qing.

The assimilation was so thorough that the Khitans, once a great empire numbering millions of people, disappeared completely from the history books. It is estimated that about 10% of Northern Han Chinese carry genetic markers of the Khitans, and nearly half of Mongolians, carry the genetic marker. This shows the integration of the Khitans into the Chinese culture, many changing their surnames (from Yelu to Lu or Lui).



Perhaps the best example of assimilation are the Manchus. Even before they crossed Shanhaiguan into China, the Manchus had already absorbed the conquered Han Chinese population outside of Shanhaiguan. Historians estimate that the pre-Qing Manchu population was at least 50% Han. The Manchus, perhaps aware of their small numbers, integrated the Han captives into their 8 Flags military system. Interestingly, after gaining power over China, the Chinese who surrendered before Shanhaiguan were counted as Manchus, not Han.

As the dynasty became established and stable, even the emperor found it hard to maintain Manchu customs and language. Intermarriage between Han and Manchu/Mongol elite was initially banned, but gradually the restriction was relaxed and intermarriages had become so common by Daoguang's era that the emperor was forced to call on only Manchu families outside of Shanhaiguan (relatively pure blooded) to supply imperial consorts. Despite official efforts to promote Manchu as a language, nearly all Manchus were monolingual in the Lingua Franca - Chinese, by the 19th century. Today, despite a population of over 15 million, only 70 or so Manchus can speak their native language.

After 5000 years, from a tribe living off the Yellow river, the Han Chinese race has adapted the customs, genetics, and language of their neighbors and made it their own. The next 5000 years, the meaning of Han could become ever broader, especially as China once again rises in power. The defining lines between Chinese and Korean or Mongolian, or Chinese and Vietnamese could once again become blurred as they have frequently throughout history, only in the future, the 'blurring' would become permanent.

I hope you enjoyed the 3 part series on our ancestral origins. Check back soon for the new article 'New China's Territorial Ambitions'.

I look forward to your comments.

Origin of the Chinese Part 2

The classification 'Han' has officially been imposed on a group of heterogeneous people within the domain of the Han Empire. By the same token, all peoples outside of the empire have become identified as barbarians or 'manyi'. As history of China moves forward, the definition of Han continued its metamorphosis.

In 200 AD, the Han Empire collapsed under the weight of corruption and rising warlordism. After the period of the Three Kingdoms, the Jin Dynasty was established over all of the territories of the previous Kingdoms. The China of the time comprised only of what we call China Proper - an area limited by the Great Wall to the north, and the Tibetan Plateau to the west and southwest. Numerous ethnic groups inhabited the fringe of the Chinese empire, and just as the Roman Empire succumbed to the combination of internal strife and external barbarian pressure, so too would the Han Chinese Jin Empire.

Barely 100 years after its founding, the Jin Empire, severely weakened by the Rebellion of the Eight Princes, and a series of incompetent rulers was invaded by northern nomadic Xiongnu - the old nemesis of the Han Dynasty. It should be noted that the Xiongnu of this period has already become much sinicized; their customs, way of life and even their names have taken on Chinese characteristics, and they were identified as separate solely by Han discrimination.

In the ensuing 200 hundred years of chaos, two separate processes of mixing occurred. In the area north of the Yangtze, the Proto-Turkic/Mongolic groups invaded one after another, each committing terrible atrocities on its predecessors and the local Han groups. The Xiongnu were soon replaced by their subordinates the Qiang; the Qiang in turn by the Tiele, and so forth. Each nomadic barbarian group established their dominance briefly after entering China and were replaced just as quickly by the next group. Finally, some semblance of stability appeared in the North of China with the emergence of the Xianbei. The Tuoba Xianbei group established the Wei Dynasty over Northern China, ending periodically the incessant fragmentation and bloodshed. Emperor Wen of Wei decreed official requirements of sinicization of his subjects, and moved the capital to Luoyang, a center of Han Chinese civilization and learning. He also ordered several barbarian last names to be sinicized; for example, the imperial name Tuoba was changed to 'Yuan'. In the process, the former barbarians have fully sinicized in all but physical appearance.

In the area south of the Yangtze, the refugee Jin Dynasty was usurped by military strongmen, who were then usurped themselves, and dynasties changed frequently. The refugee Han managed to assimilate much of the local Yue (ancestors of the Thai, Hmong, and Vietnamese) groups and introduce advanced agriculture to the productive Yangtze watershed, setting in motion the gradual shift of China's economic engine from North to South, and from West to East.

The assimilation of this time period was further consolidated by the unification of China by the Sui and the Tang dynasties. Already sinicized in manner, language, religion and customs, the only vestige of the barbarians was the physical appearance. It was noted by the emissaries from Japan and Baekje (a relatively unbiased first hand account) that the fifth emperor of the Tang, Xuanzong, had reddish hair. Also, historical accounts describe Tang Taizong, the most valiant of Tang emperors, as having greenish eyes and golden hair, obvious Turkic features. In addition, the names of the founders of the Tang reveal barbarian lineages, such as the name Zhangsun, from Taizong's chancellor, Zhangsun Wuji.

In time, the larger population of the ethnic Han would dilute these physical differences to render them invisible. Genetics however still show that the of contemporary Chinese, those from the North show greater genetic similarities to the Mongolians, Koreans and other Central Asian groups than to Southern Chinese groups. Southern Chinese groups share more genetic similarities to Southeast Asian ethnic groups than to Northern Chinese.

Chaos returned to peace and another 300 years of prosperity and consolidation and a new Han Chinese identity emerged stronger than before. However, the emergence of new nomadic powers and the decline of Han military strengths would usher in a new period of challenges and opportunities for the Chinese civilization. See Part 3 of Origin of the Chinese.

Origin of the Chinese

It's amazing that so few people have asked this question to date, "Where do the Chinese come from?", since it has the world's largest population and presents a seemingly homogeneous front.

As a matter of fact, the dominate ethnic group in China is the Han, which to most people are, and for the rest of this article will be synonymous with Chinese.

Where do the Han really come from? Was it one racially pure people that proliferated in isolation or did outside genetics contribute? To answer these questions, let start from the beginning, before there were Hans. The name Han identifies people of the Han Empire, which ruled from present day Korea to Vietnam, from the East China Sea to the Tarim Desert, lasted some 400 years from 206 BCE to 220 CE.

The origin story of the Chinese goes way back into history or pre-history. 3000 years before the Han dynasty, when what we call China today was inhabited by various tribes, the mythical ancestors of the Han, the Huaxia, controlled swathes of land centered around the Yellow River. According to legend, the leader of the Huaxia, Huangdi, defeated the 4 surrounding tribes, to the North, South, East, and West of Huaxia and incorporated their people and territory. The 4 leaders of those tribes, along with Huangdi became known as the 5 Emperors. Legends also tell of Huangdi defeating and assimilate the tribe of Yandi. Together, Huangdi and Yandi have been viewed as the progenitors of the Han race, which refers to itself as 'descendants of yan and huang'. Also, '3 sovereigns and 5 emperors' are also viewed by the Han as the founding dynasty of China. From the very beginning, the Chinese people have been mingling with other races. Though these stories have little substantial evidence, it shows at the very least that the Han have had no claims to racial purity from its inception.

The next 3 thousand years saw increased warfare, migrations, and assimilation and only at the end of the era of the Warring States did a unified cultural identity emerge from the 7 main states that spanned most of China. The assimilation was consolidated by the unification of China and some 500 years of centralized government and peace.

But the amalgamation was not done, as barbarians will soon contribute their gene pool. See Origin of the Chinese Part 2.

Life and Great Firewall of China

Google has recently threatened to pull out of China for ethical reasons and implicitly hinted that the government were behind many cyberattacks on its network.



China does not have the best human rights record, I mean, barely 20 years ago the largest pro-democracy protest in the country ended in a bloodbath. However, things are changing rapidly. Although I can't deny that the government will continue to resolutely crackdown on protests of any sort, it now does so with a different purpose - stability.

20 years the communist government was at odds with its founding doctrine, therefore could not legitimize its rule. The bloody crackdown on June 4th, 1989 was necessary to prevent the country from descending into chaos. 20 years later, the government has re-christened itself the steward of economic development, and the rallying cry has been changed from socialism to 'socialism with Chinese characteristics', an euphemism for market capitalism.

So let's get some facts clear:
YES China routinely censors web content deemed subversive or 'disturbing to social
stability'
YES China will arrest anyone who speaks out too bluntly against the government.
and YES it will invade the privacy of those deemed dangerous or subversive.

The following sites are inaccessible in China: Wikipedia.com, CNN.com, BBC.co.uk and dozens other less known websites.

However, the intention is not to control/restrict people's lives but to limit the the effect of the fallout of individual grievances on the general public. To be honest, all the average middle class Chinese have accepted this minor inconvenience in exchanged for continued prosperity and rising living standards.

China is not free in terms of speech; there is no democratic government to speak of. However, given the reality of things, this is possibly the best way for its people.

I know this sounds cynical, but look at the alternative: India, the largest democracy made up of starving villagers who are too hungry to care about voting.