China's Territorial Ambitions - Russia

Weakness invites Strength; wealth invites greed. Two millenia of power and prosperity has spread far and wide the tales of China's fabulous wealth. At the beginning of the 19th century, China's prosperity was fading, and foreign powers came knocking on china's door to divide the spoils.

200 years later, China rises again, and time has not erased its memories of its past glory, or territory.

Japan, Russia and Great Britain made the most significant territorial gains in China. As of 2010, former territories occupied by Great Britain, Portugal and over European powers have been fully restored to China. There remains, however, ongoing occupation of Chinese lands in the North, West, and East.

Russia accounts for the bulk of this occupation. From the map above, all of Russia's Far East Provinces including Sakhalin were formed out of Outer Manchuria, which Russia took in a series of unequal treaties when China was at its weakest. These are the only unequal treaties to have territorial impact to this day, as all other unequal treaties imposed by Western Powers have generally either expired or been revoked by the Communist Government. Though China has officially renounced claims to these lands, in the hearts of the people, government and military, these lands still belong to China. On Chinese maps, place names in the Russia Far East are still referred to their original Chinese names instead of the Russian names. For example, 'Haishenwei' is used instead of Vladivostok, and Kuye Dao, instead of Sakhalin Island on Chinese maps.



Demographics also come into play. In China's 3 Northeastern Provinces, there are over 110 million people which is projected to reach 130 million by 2020. While the Russian Far East (RFE) (including Yakutia, Irkusk, Kamchatka) in total has a population of 6.7 million as of the 2009, and is projected to fall to 4.5 million by 2015, according to CIA world Factbook. Based on estimates by the UN, China's population density is 362/sq. mi versus 22/sq. mi in Russia. Thus China experiences 17 times the population pressure of Russia, an extreme population imbalance according to theories of Population Osmosis. Due to the remoteness of the RFE to Russian heartland, and relative proximity of China's Northeast (CNE) to Beijing, China's political centre, the contrast is even more stark - CNE has 62 times the population of the RFE, despite having less than 1/4 the area. Currently, there is an estimated 100,000 to 300,000 thousand Chinese in the RFE working as laborers or traders, according to the Russian Census.

A second contrast is resource allocation. China has 20% of the world's population, but 1% of the world's oil, 5% of the world's arable land. Russia has 2.5% the world's population, 5.5% of the world's oil, not to mention the largest reserve of natural gas in the world, 8% of the world's arable land, of which only half are cultivated. In addition, Russia is endowed numerous fresh water sources. Lake Baikal alone holds 20% of the world's fresh water. Meanwhile, China has repeated suffered droughts, and its rivers are heavily polluted or drying up. For now China is content to pay Russia a premium for these resources which China views as rightfully its own, but this may not be the case in the future.

Though the world has focus its attention of the animosity between China and the US, a US-China conflict is much less likely than one between Russia and China. First of all, to quote the Art of War, "apply diplomacy to the rivals far away, and force to those nearby". America, and other Western powers are very removed from China; so despite their differences, it would be difficult for either party to initiate violence due the distance and logistics. Military cadres in both countries are focused on deterrence factors, not advanced deployments. Secondly, despite the periodic rhetoric, China and US have in essence forged a very profitable partnership that either party would be foolish to reverse. The third reason is historical: despite China's current misgivings about the US, including the Taiwan Question, the Dalai Lama, etc, the US has never in history, actually caused serious harm to China's interests. In fact, China has the US to thank for much of its recent economic prosperity. Russia on the other hand has been a persistent threat and harm for the last 200 years.

In terms of capability, the combination of Chinese numerical advantage and recent military technology advancements should place the PLA on par if not at an advantage to Russia. China unveiled the JL-10 fighter, which is has drawn comparisons to American F-16 and the French Mirage 2000. The only deterrent would be Russia's nuclear arsenal. However, China's own nuclear development has enabled it to at least disable Russia's Second Strike Capability if not its First Strike as well.

Russian political instability in the future may offer China an opportunity to impose its will, just as Czarist Russia did in the 19th century.

To conclude this section, let's tally up the factors:

1. China has a legitimate claim to Russian lands
2. China needs Russia land as a population valve
3. China desperately need Russia's resources
4. Russian political instability makes it likely prey
5. China's strengthening position in economic, political, and military terms

Deterrent:

1.Russia's nuclear arsenal
2. World political pressure
3. China's need for stability for further economic growth

Odds:

China goes to war with Russia in next 10 years: 5% likeliness
in next 50 years: 50% likliness

China wins in conflict with Russia: 50%

Next edition: China's Territorial Ambitions - Mongolia