China's Territorial Amibtions 2 - Mongolia

The nomads lost to the farmers - while the farmers feared the light cavalry horde a few hundred years ago, the nomads fear the economic power of the Chinese today.

Of all of China's neighbors, no other country has had a more tormented relationship with China than Mongolia. From the time of the Huns, to Genghis Khan, to the Qing Dynasty and to modern day, the nomads of the Mongol Steppe have feuded with the agrarian Chinese civilization south to them.

Less than 100 years ago, during China's weakest moments, with the aid of the Soviets, the Mongols threw off China's yoke. Ever since that time, the Mongols have resented the Chinese for past domination and the threat of a Chinese invasion. This fear is due partly to irrational xenophobia, but the Mongolians have very good reasons to fear China, and it's not beyond the realm of reality that China's 2.3 million strong army sweeps across the Gobi and annex this country of 3 million people.

China has very strong economic reasons to invade, but first let's look at the legality of such a move. The People's Republic of China renounced claims to Mongolia in 1949 due the alliance at the time with USSR - the Mainland Communist Chinese Government needed Russian aid and expertise, and simply was not in a position to engage challenge the Russians over Mongolia after 2 decades of constant war. However, the Republic of China government exiled to Taiwan, still the rightful successor government to inherit the territories of the Qing empire never legally gave up claims to this land. Any future reconciliations between these two governments would inevitably lead to a calibration of the territorial claims. The new unified, strengthened China may decide to repudiate old treaties and bring back old claims. Technically, the Republic of China never gave up 'Outer Mongolia'. Thus any annexations by China would not be deemed illegal, if China at all cares about legality at that point, since laws are always dictated by the strong.

Economics 1: As with Russia in the previous article, the population osmosis factor between the two countries favors a move by China.

Mongolia has a population density of 5.1 persons/sq mi to China's 363 persons/sq mi. Historically, Han Chinese stayed out of the Steppe because the area was not suited for traditional Chinese sedentary agricultural society, and the ferocity of the Mongol Horde. Today, the Horde has long been vanquished and Mongolian lands can be profitable agriculturally with large scale industrial dairy and meat production, and even advanced agricultural technology such as drip irrigation. The new generation of Chinese looking for adventure and seeking relief from the crowded Chinese cities would do well to find their Wild West in Mongolia.

Economics 2: Mongolia sits on vast deposits of resources, especially gold and copper. Foreign corporations such as Ivanhoe Mines Inc. have already moved in to exploit these at very favorable terms - Ivanhoe Mines negotiated a deal where the weak and corrupt Mongolian Government essentially ceded 5% of the country total land area to Ivanhoe Mines to develop in return for a fixed royalty. Ivanhoe has profited enormously from high copper and gold prices. Mongolians are too poor and uneducated to stop foreign exploitation one way or another. There's also speculation of massive oil reserves beneath the Gobi in Mongolia. China is sitting on the sidelines with clenched fists because the Mongolian government is still wary of Chinese involvement in the economy. China needs the resources, and needs them cheap and close to home. Mongolia is ideal for a national takeover, just as a weak corporation rich in hard assets is ripe for a corporate buyout.

See http://www.mimc.mn/en/main-content/mongolian-mineral-resources.html.



Geopolitics 1: Beijing, the capital and heart of China, lies merely 700km from the Mongolian border. There are no major geographic obstacles from the border to Beijing ie steep mountain passes, major rivers, to stop an invading army. Without resistance, an invading army can start out from the border at 6 AM and stand in front of Tiananmen before dinner time. Although the Mongols themselves pose little threat, their alliance with Russians and recently with the Americans has definitely raised alarms in Beijing among the highest circles. China would do well to insulate its capital by adding more buffer territory.

Geopolitics 2: Outer Mongolia signed a treaty with Tibet in 1923 recognizing each other's independence. Tibet fell to China, Mongolia only managed to retain its independence Russian help. That treaty stands to this day as the only legal treaty negotiated by the then independent Tibet with a foreign government recognizing its independence. The Tibetan Government-in-exile cites this as proof which infinitely annoys China. In geopolitical terms, Mongolia is nearly identical to Tibet - both are rich in resources, both in strategic locations, both historically and rightfully should belong to China. China's possession of one but both weakens its reasoning for the Tibet occupation. In addition, the Mongols in China, which number 6 million (twice the population of Mongolia) have fomented secessionist movements aimed at reuniting Inner Mongolia with Outer Mongolia. In Outer Mongolia too, many share this ambition - the founding father, Sukhbaatar, planned armed annexation of Inner Mongolia but was restrained by his Russian master. This is a potential flash point that China must neutralize.

Military and International community: the Mongolian armed forces may do better than the Tibetan army did in 1951 against the PLA, but their struggle would be futile. Their old benefactor Russia has to worry about its own safety and is becoming increasingly falling to par with China in terms of military strength. Russia would think twice before intervening, especially in the future when Russia's unstable political system meets crisis. As for the West and Japan, Mongolia represents an insignificant factor to their interest that in the event of annexation by China, the most tactful response would be vocal opposition coupled with quiet acquiescence.

Odds:

In next 50 years, China peacefully annexes Mongolia - 80%
China forcefully annexes Mongolia - 50%